Will spring come early? Only the groundhog knows
- Marcus Hathcock
- Lake Oswego Review - Opinion
Punxsutawney Phil show takes place on Friday
One of our country's most bizarre rituals takes place this Friday, Feb. 2. This week, the nation's attention and hopes for spring hang on whether or not an oversized, fuzzy rodent sees its shadow.
Yes, Groundhog Day is here again, and before images of Bill Murray repeating a day over and over fill your head, we need to get back to the true reason for the holiday: Weather prediction.
Since Feb. 2, 1887, the groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil has been released from his burrow on Gobbler's Knob in a Sandy-sized town in western Pennsylvania, looking for his shadow. Once he gets out in the open, he tells his handlers whether or not he saw his shadow, using a super-secret rodent language called 'Groundhogese' (I didn't make this up - it's on the groundhog's official Web site).
The implications of Phil's shadow, apparently, are huge. If he sees it, spring's not coming for six more weeks. If there's no shadow, spring has sprung. Though Punxsutawney is more than 2,600 miles away from the Sandy area, Phil's prediction is probably important to a lot of us in the Northwest, sick of the seemingly endless winter gloom.
Groundhog Club Past President Bud Dunkel - a man who has known and handled Phil for nearly 40 years - said that the groundhog's predictions are not just for Pennsylvania, the Northeast or even for the United States.
'It's worldwide,' Dunkel said.
He said the power of Phil's universal accuracy and relevance to the Northern Hemisphere was demonstrated during World War II.
From 1942 to 1945, 'The U.S. government asked us to stop using Phil as a forecast for the weather because it might lend aid and comfort to the enemy,' Dunkel said. 'They would know what the weather's going to be in Europe and know how to plan operations. We didn't make a forecast for those years. How's that for proof?'
Well, according to Phil's Web site again, nobody knows what the groundhog will forecast until he hops out into view Feb. 2, but with the help of Oregon climatologist George H. Taylor, we might be able to predict what old Phil's going to say.
'We almost always get a warm-up and dry-out sometime in February,' Taylor said. 'It's sort of like a first breath of spring, but even if it comes, the rains will come back.'
Our wet winter conditions, he said, will likely linger through February and into March.
So, if Phil is never wrong, as locals assert, it appears that he should see his shadow - like he has 90 percent of the time since 1887. Taylor thinks Phil will see his shadow. I guess having spring start in February would be a weird thing, especially in Oregon. Do whatever you want, Phil … just keep it real.
Marcus Hathcock is the editor/general manager of the Sandy Post, a member of Community Newspapers.