Oregon voters showing their independent streak
Are Oregonians just being their cantankerous selves, or is something deeper occurring in their collective psyche?
In the same week that a statewide poll showed U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in this state, the senator and presidential candidate from Vermont also produced a turnout of 28,000 people inside and outside the Moda Center to hear him speak in Portland. Not since Barack Obama drew 75,000 people to Waterfront Park in 2008 has Portland seen such a rock-star response to an upstart political candidate.
Sanders reception in Portland sends a strong message that people are looking for an alternative to front runner Clinton, but its not just Democrats who are in a rebellious mood. The same poll that has Sanders within five percentage points of Clinton in the Democratic primary also showed Donald Trump well out in front of his competitors for the Republican presidential nomination.
When asked by Portlands DHM Research who they would support in the GOP presidential primary, 18 percent of respondents named Trump. In a crowded Republican field, that placed the bombastic billionaire ahead of Scott Walker at 12 percent, Jeb Bush at 11 percent and Ted Cruz at 10 percent.
(For the record, on the Democratic side, it was 44 percent for Clinton, 39 percent for Sanders and 12 percent undecided.)
If there is a common theme tying these statistics together, its that a large percentage of voters in both parties are quite dissatisfied with traditional establishment candidates. Further buttressing this viewpoint is the news that the Independent Party of Oregon has now qualified for major party status in this state.
Now that this accomplishment has indeed been realized, the Independent Party, at least for the next election cycle, will have all the perks afforded the Democratic and Republican parties. The state will have to fund the Independent Partys primary, and its winning candidates will appear on the general election ballot opposite the Democratic and Republican nominees.
The Independent Party was granted major status because the secretary of states office has determined that at least 5 percent of Oregon voters had registered as party members. But even as the party crosses the 5 percent threshold, its newfound prominence will be short-lived. Thats because the states motor-voter law, approved by the 2015 Legislature, will automatically enroll hundreds of thousands of Oregonians to be new voters in 2017 and they will all be non-affiliated voters until they choose a party.
With those new voters on the rolls, the Independent Party likely will fall below the 5 percent mark once again. But the underlying progression has been relentless. For years, Oregon voters have been moving away from the two major parties and registering as unaffiliated or as members of minor parties. Frustration with consensus, establishment candidates runs high, especially among younger voters.
These trends certainly arent limited to Oregon, but this states independent streak always has been strong.
At the same time, voters retain a sense of realism. Despite their personal preferences, a strong majority of Democrats polled by DHM fully expect Hillary Clinton to be their partys nominee, and a strong plurality of Republicans expect the same of Jeb Bush.
Oregon voters arent naíve about the likely outcome of this states and other states 2016 presidential primaries, but neither are they enthused by what they see as the establishment choices. The trick for any national, statewide or local candidates in 2016 will be to tap into this rebellious mood without appearing like Trump to be a novelty candidate whose allure is bound to fade.