Poll: Adams no shoo-in

Commissioner has big lead in mayoral race, but Dozono has time to close gap

By Jim Redden

The Portland Tribune, Feb 12, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (25 Reader comments)

Well-respected local pollster Tim Hibbitts does not believe the race for Portland mayor is a foregone conclusion, based on his analysis of a survey of likely voters conducted last week for the Portland Tribune and Fox News (12).

“It’s far from a done deal,” Hibbitts said.

According to the poll, city Commissioner Sam Adams currently leads local businessman Sho Dozono among likely candidates by a margin of 41 percent to 20 percent, with 2 percent for other candidates and 36 percent undecided.

Despite Adams’ 21 percent lead over Dozono, Hibbitts believes Dozono still has time to mount a credible challenge, especially once voters begin paying attention to such local issues as the controversial street maintenance fee sponsored by Adams that is headed for the November general election ballot.

“Adams leads, but Dozono has a chance to make it a competitive race,” said Hibbitts of Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc., the polling firm that conducted the first of many exclusive polls for the newspaper and TV station, which are news partners.

If neither candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the May 20 primary election, the top two vote-getters will face off in the November election.

Told of the results, Adams said he was pleased with his support.

“That’s gratifying, given the tough issues I’ve been working on,” said Adams, citing his support for the controversial street maintenance and complex storm-water management fees.

Dozono said he was encouraged by the results, especially what he saw as a relatively high number of undecided voters.

“It shows Portlanders want a robust debate on the future of the city, which is what I intend to give them,” he said.

Dozono also said he was not surprised Adams had so much support for the mayor’s office at this time.

“He’s been running for it since he took office on the City Council,” Dozono said.

According to the poll, Portlanders have more positive feelings about both Adams and Dozono than negative ones. In the poll, 50 percent of respondents view Adams very or somewhat favorably, compared with 21 percent who view him very or somewhat unfavorably.

Dozono’s figures are lower but still favorable — 24 percent view him very or somewhat favorably, while only 2 percent view him very or somewhat unfavorably.

“This suggests Dozono has a chance,” Hibbitts said. “He has a base he can build on, and his negative ratings are very low.”

The poll shows that Adams has more support than Dozono among women, young voters and Democrats. Dozono does better among older men.

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