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U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick has a slight lead over Jeff Merkley in Oregon’s Democratic primary, but there are so many undecided voters the race is still a tossup, Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts said Monday.
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 400 likely Democratic voters across the state from May 8 to 10, in a poll conducted for the Portland Tribune and FOX 12 News.
Novick leads Merkley by 29 percent to 23 percent among likely Democratic voters, but 43 percent of the voters are still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, meaning the numbers could be off by that amount in either direction.
“I would rate Novick a very slight edge,” Hibbitts said. “This race is very much up in the air.”
Candy Neville, a Eugene real estate broker, has the support of 3 percent of Democratic voters, Hibbitts said. He predicted that Neville and the other low-profile candidates could draw 10 percent to 15 percent of the vote combined. That means the winner could emerge out of the primary with 40 percent to 45 percent of the Democratic vote, Hibbitts said.
Merkley, the speaker of the Oregon House, was recruited by national Democratic leaders to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith, R-Pendleton. Smith’s poll numbers show he is vulnerable, but he has stockpiled several million dollars to spend on the race, and can tap his considerable personal fortune.
Novick, a former federal attorney who has worked on several Oregon campaigns, was snubbed by Democratic Party leaders. But his feisty campaign has won him several major endorsements and momentum in the race, despite Merkley’s superior fundraising.
Eldon Fedler, 67, a retired banker from Northeast Portland, told pollsters that he favors Novick in the race.
“He just stands there and tells it like it is,” Fedler said. “He’s a breath of fresh air. Merkley is part of the establishment.”
Ralph Griffin, 81, a retired heavy equipment operator who lives near David Douglas High in east Portland, told pollsters he favors Merkley, who represents him in the Oregon House. Merkley “did a mighty fine job” running the House, Griffin said, and has the best shot at defeating Gordon Smith. Novick, he said, is a “pretty rash fellow.”
Mail-in ballots are due May 20 for Oregon’s primary. As of mid-day Monday, 271,065 Oregonians had cast ballots, about 13 percent of the electorate. That includes Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
I want Merley to get nominated, that way the waste of DNA will have to give up his Oregon legislative seat! He can't beat Smith but Oregon will be a better place with him out of politics.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 03:07 AM
Babar - Talk about a "waste of DNA." If you learned how to spell or even to compose a grammatically correct sentence, you might stand a chance of making it to your 19th birthday. I love it when the rednecks from Gresham comment. Keep it up, pal.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 03:40 AM
"We sure in great shape on this one!" - John. We sure is John!
I think John and Babar are the offspring of siblings.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 04:01 AM
"Babar's uncle", which one are you? Oh, I know, you're my uncle pervie. Happy to hear you were finally paroled!
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 04:05 AM
Merkley is up by 13 outside of Portland. Merkley appeals across the state and Novick has weak support outside of Portland. Smith is vulnerable.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 04:22 AM
Hey,
I am from Gresham. I am NOT a redneck.. Babar,he's probably from Troutdale.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 05:16 AM
"Redneck from Gresham" is a standard line from a low level moron who goes by Tiffany Barnswell.
Tiffany, honey, we talked about how difficult it can be to formulate intelligent adult sentences. Do you remember how we decided that you weren't ready for 'grownup time' on the Internet and that you should stick to the 'Kiddie Sites'?
I think we still need to work on that maturing thing.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 07:36 AM
Gordon Smith will win in November. If he were truly as vulnerable as folks like to say, Blumenauer, DeFazio, Kitzhaber or Kulongoski would be running against him. They all knew better and walked away.
In a radio interview about a year ago Vera Katz said "I don't think any democrat can beat Gordon".
DeFazio would have been the dems best shot. A lot of Republicans would have voted for him. As it is Smith is faced by a State Rep and an activist who has never held office. Novick is colorful, but he doesn't come across as "senatorial" and Merkely doesn't have the resume for the senate.
Oregonians will keep Smith and, more importantly, Smith's seniority in the Senate.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 09:09 AM
I would not have voted for Defazio, due to his stance on illegal aliens. He was probably the only chance the DNC had to unseat Smith.
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 02:33 PM
If you've been paying attention to the various debates, you may have noticed Merkley has either not shown up or left early at several venues. Even Frohnmayer commented on this. Seems like whenever the questions arnt known in advance so he can prepare a statement, Merkley bails. If every politician was as honest as and not full of pretention as Novick, the world would be a better place.
(email verified)
Wed, May 14, 2008 at 05:23 AM
Merkeley is just another typical poll driven candidate who is more caring of his reputation than the policies he is pushing...Novick will stand up for the little guy, Merkeley I'm sure would fit well in the Senate considering how genteel he tries to be on a person to person basis, total shoe in for the elites that like to buddy buddy in the Senate.
And Novick can and will be Smith. Smith is too tied to the failed Republican policies, and Novick has support even among rural folks...Merkeley even had to go negative against Novick and use harsh quotes he had for Obama and Clinton as well as any democrats..
I don't know about anybody else, but I'd rather someone speak his mind and back it with a factually based argument then someone be polite and say nothing. Novick will certainly shake up the Senate, and would be a strong progressive voice for our beautiful state.
(email verified)
Thu, May 15, 2008 at 05:26 PM
I heard Merkley speak recently. He is thoughtful, right on the money on Democratic issues, and a man of considerable integrity. People who have worked with him have glowing things to say about him. You may want Novick's brand of out front politics -- something I practice -- but saying Merkley isn't a terrific guy is the wrong thing to say.
(email verified)
Sat, May 17, 2008 at 06:10 AM
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Re: Novick enjoys ‘slight lead’ over Merkley in poll
According to the Taxpayers association Merkley has never voted against a bill that spends taxpayers money. You need only to listen to Novick to see how little respect He has for fiscal responsibility.
Were sure in great shape on this one!
"John"
(email verified)
Tue, May 13, 2008 at 02:43 AM