Contentious Senate race could be a tossup

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Sep 17, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (9 Reader comments)

A new Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll shows Democratic House Speaker Jeff Merkley has climbed almost even with incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, R-Pendleton, in Oregon’s increasingly bitter U.S. Senate race.

Smith leads Merkley 42-39 percent among Oregon registered voters in a poll conducted by Portland-based Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. Sixteen percent of voters are undecided, and 4 percent support Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow.

“I think it’s now a jump-ball race,” pollster Tim Hibbitts said. “I expect it to be very close to the end.”

Blistering TV ad attacks by both sides are driving down voters’ positive views of Smith, who was elected to the Senate in 1996 and easily re-elected in 2002.

More than half of Oregon voters viewed Smith favorably as recently as a year ago, but now that’s down to one-third of the voters, less than those who view him unfavorably. Only 53 percent of Republicans view him favorably – lower than President Bush’s 65 percent approval rating among Oregon Republicans.

“This is politically what I would call a collapse,” Hibbitts said. “It’s not good news for Smith at all.”

How the poll was done

Pollsters for Portland public opinion firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 500 registered voters sprinkled around the state, on behalf of the Portland Tribune and Fox 12. Calls were made Sept. 11 through Sept. 14, after the “bounces” that Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain received following their party conventions in Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning results could be off by that amount, in either direction. Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall is nonpartisan and does not work for political candidates.

Smith led Merkley by 6 and 12 percentage points in the last two publicly released polls, taken in early August by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA.

On the flip side, Merkley, never widely known among Oregon voters, has not been able to build a positive image among voters. Only 45 percent of his own party members view the Portland Democrat favorably, according to pollsters.

“Smith is doing damage to Merkley,” Hibbitts said. “But he’s not helping himself.”

“I don’t like either of them,” said Elizabeth Yule, 30, a dialysis technician from North Portland and a registered Republican who was one of the poll respondents. “I don’t like the whole hate campaign. You don’t know anything about their stands on everything.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is pumping huge sums into Merkley’s race, calculating that Smith’s seat is a prime opportunity to pad Democrats’ thin Senate majority. That bet looks like it’s paying off, Hibbitts said.

Smith is “in huge trouble” in Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties, Hibbitts said. Merkley leads Smith 47-37 percent in the three voter-rich counties.

Northeast Portland retiree Donna Dean, 72, a registered Democrat, told pollsters she’s voting for Merkley, though she likes Smith and voted for him in the past. “I don’t want any of the old Bush (people) in there if I can help it,” Dean said. “I’d like to start off with a clean slate.”

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