Bailey’s poll says he leads Wheeler in mayor’s race

Published 12:00 am Monday, December 14, 2015

Although Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey has not yet announced for Portland mayor, the firm expected to run his campaign has released a poll that shows he is already leading State Treasurer Ted Wheeler by 38 to 35 percent.

More than a quarter of Portland voters are undecided, however, meaning the race coud go either way if the survey is accurate.

“I think it’s reflective of the work I’ve done in the Oregon Legislature and on the County Commission, and I think it shows Portlanders want to have a conversation about the future of their city,” says Bailey, who represented a portion of Southeast Portland in the Oregon House of Representatives before being elected to the board of commissioners.

Wheeler’s campaign dismissed the poll, however.

“This clearly isn’t a credible poll, but Jules Bailey is a practiced politician and he’s going to focus on this sort of thing. Ted Wheeler is an experienced policymaker and he’s focused on solutions to the challenges facing our city,” says Wheeler’s campaign manager Michael Cox, who did not offer any other poll figures.

Bailey has not formally announced because he cannot file for another office before January without having to resign from his commission seat under the county’s term limit restrictions. Asked whether taking a poll means he is actually already running, Bailey said, “It’s better to look before you leap.”

Bailey also said the poll included questions that were not released.

Political veterans usually say polls released by candidates and ballot measure campaigns should be taken with a grain of salt. Bailey’s political action committee paid for this one. But it is the first poll released so far that shows a head-to-head match up between Bailey and Wheeler.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the May 2016 Primary Election was taken between Dec. 9 and 13 by Patinkin Research Strategies. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent, which means Wheeler could actually be ahead.

According to a memo prepared by Patinkin, here is how those surveyed responded to following question:

“If the May 17th Primary Election for mayor of Portland were held today, for whom would you vote or are you undecided?”

Jules Bailey: 38 percent

Ted Wheeler: 35 percent

Someone else: 1 percent

Undecided: 26 percent

There are some reasons to question the results. Although Bailey served in the Oregon House before being elected to the county board of commissioners, he has never run citywide before. In contrast, Wheeler did well throughout Portland when he successfully ran for Multnomah County chair and for state treasurer. Wheeler was also reportedly well ahead of incumbent Mayor Charlie Hales in polls that were not publicly released before Hales dropped out of the race.

The poll was released by ProspectPDX, which is responding to questions about Bailey’s potential candidacy.