2024 Oregon State football opponent preview: Cal

Published 3:28 pm Friday, October 25, 2024

Oregon State’s week nine matchup takes the Beavers to the home stadium of a proud, long-standing Atlantic Athletic Conference member situated just minutes from… the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean.

Tongue-in-cheek jokes and sarcasm aside, the 4-3 Beavers head down to Berkeley for a matchup with former Pac-12 member Cal. The Golden Bears enter the matchup sitting a game below .500 this season. Starting off the season with a squeaky clean 3-0 record with wins over UC Davis, Auburn and San Diego State, Cal is currently in the midst of a four-game skid with losses to Florida State, Miami, Pittsburgh and North Carolina State.  

Despite the losing streak, Cal is a grand total of nine points away from being 7-0 at this point in the year. The Justin Wilcox-led squad’s largest margin of defeat this season has been a five-point, 14-9 road loss to Florida State. Cal got the other half of the Florida Cup rivalry two weeks later, losing by just one point at home to the now No. 6-ranked Miami Hurricanes. A two-point loss on the road at Pittsburgh was then followed up by another one-point loss at home, this time to North Carolina State. 

To make a long story short, this is a feisty Cal team that — like Oregon State — is in the midst of a numbers game to get bowl eligible and arguably a must-win for both the Golden Bears and the Beavers. 

“(Cal is a) talented team,” Oregon State head coach Trent Bray said of Cal. “Defensively, they’re playing really well. They’ve got big, physical kids that play hard. Offensively… (it) doesn’t matter who’s at running back, they’ve got good runners (and the) quarterback is talented. It’s going to be another challenge defensively for us this week.” 

Cal Offense 

Bray’s comment about it not mattering who is playing running back for Cal is one of, if not the most, important thing to note about the Cal offense. Golden Bears running back Jaydn Ott was a Doak Walker Award candidate and an All-Pac-12 First Team selection in 2023 as well as a 2024 All-ACC preseason selection.

The now-junior posted over 1,300 rushing yards and 12 scores last season, but has been a casualty to the injury bug in 2024 and has played in just four games with 47 carries and 135 yards — 2.9-per carry — to his credit. Ott was out of the rotation against Pitt and NC State as a reported ankle injury has lingered, with Wilcox not indicating if the running back will suit up Saturday. 

When Ott has been out of the mix, sophomore Jaivian Thomas has been the primary option to the fill the void. Thomas has been functional as the understudy, racking up 78 yards on just nine carries with a pair of touchdowns in the loss to NC State. Another sophomore, Byron Cardwell Jr., actually out-touched Thomas against NC State — getting 10 carries — but was less productive with just 34 yards. 

While a healthy Ott is undoubtedly the engine of the Cal offense, quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a steady and effective presence for the Golden Bears under center.

Mendoza, now a redshirt-sophomore, actually made his first career start for Cal against the Beavers last season, completing 21 of 32 passing attempts for 207 yards and a pair of scores in a loss. In his first year as the full-time starter, Mendoza has completed 67.4% of his passing attempts with over 1,700 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions so far this season.

While not the rushing threat that Nevada’s Brendon Lewis and UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams were, Mendoza has had a rush of over 10 yards in five of seven games this season, including a long of 26-yards. His legs aren’t an emphasis in the Cal offense like the usage of the aforementioned quarterbacks, but with how susceptible to the quarterback run Oregon State has been, it still presents a threat. 

Mendoza’s favorite target in the passing game this year has been tight end Jack Endries, who has blown up over the last two weeks. After 11 catches over the first four games of the year, Endries put up back-to-back 100-yard performances against Pitt and NC State with a combined 17 catches for 220 yards to take the team-lead this season in both categories.

Although Endries is the new leader in the clubhouse, Mendoza has spread the ball around well all season with eight different players recording double-digit catches. Receivers Nyziah Hunter and Jonathan Brady are the next two down the list, with Hunter having 20 grabs for 230 yards and a team-leading four touchdowns and Brady with 18 catches for 199 yards.

Cal also could potentially be getting an extra weapon in the mix, with Notre Dame-transfer Tobias Merriweather returning to the practice field this week and still looking to make his Golden Bears debut. 

Cal Defense 

Oregon State played the FBS-leader in interceptions last weekend in UNLV and will have to do so again this week. Cal is tied for No. 2 in the nation in the category, with 13 passes intercepted this season. 

However, the Cal secondary is a “Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde” group.

In four games this year, the Golden Bears have held opposing quarterbacks to under 200 passing yards. But — for all the ball production they’ve had — two opposing quarterbacks have found ways to shred them. Miami’s Cam Ward put up 437 yards on them, while NC State’s CJ Bailey went for 306. 

Cornerback Nohl Williams is the poster boy of the boom-or-bust play, leading the charge for the Golden Bears in the turnover department with six interceptions this year and returning one of them for a touchdown. On the other side of the coin, Williams leads the team in passing-game targets and second in passing yards allowed.

Throw at your own risk — and potential reward.

Cal has also generated lots of pass rush, with 23 sacks on the season and 146 total quarterback pressures. Edge rusher Xavier Carlton has accounted for five of those sacks and 25 pressures, leading the team in both categories. Outside of Carlton, Cal rotates along its defensive line often, with six different players recording over 100 pass-rush snaps and 11 recording over 50. 

Off-ball linebacker has also been a position of note for Cal. While the Golden Bears rotate up front often, their two linebackers — sophomore Cade Uluave and senior Teddye Buchanan — have lived on the field. Uluave was a freshman all-American last season for Cal and the Pac-12’s defensive freshman of the year, while Buchanan joined the Golden Bears this season after a four-year career with UC Davis. 

Buchanan has been massively effective for Cal as a blitzer, tying Carlton with five sacks for the team-lead. But where Carlton has had over 200 pass-rush reps, Buchanan has matched the total on just 52. Buchanan has gotten pressure home on 32.6% of his pass-rush reps and came up with a sack on 9.6% of them. He’s a threat to get home to the quarterback no matter where Cal lines him up. 

How to win 

The Beavers need a win, badly.

As previously said, it’s turning into a numbers game to get Oregon State two more wins to become bowl eligible and a win over Cal makes the equation much easier — and keeps them over .500. 

Ott being out would do Oregon State a lot of good with the struggles the Beavs defense has had against the run, even with improvements last week against UNLV. This defense has, is and will continue to give up points, but forcing Cal to do it through the air bodes better for a thin Beavers front seven. 

Offensively, this is a mixed-bag game for Oregon State. Cal let up a combined 282 rushing yards to Pitt and Miami, with the teams averaging a combined 4.6 yards per carry. They came back from those two outings and allowed NC State just 29 rushing yards on 30 carries. The Beavers lean on their run game more than the Wolfpack or Panthers, but — on a per-carry basis — are very comparable, with all three averaging over five yards a carry. 

Ultimately, taking quarterback Gevani McCoy off the leash for a full four quarters could be one of the best options. 

When Ward and Bailey diced up the Cal defense through the air, they had the most success targeting tight ends, slot receivers and running backs over the middle. Oregon State tight end Jermaine Terry II has woken up in the passing game over the past three weeks and McCoy’s ability to throw completions into tight windows in the middle of the field bodes well for the Beavers and the potential for a Jeremiah Noga breakout game could be in the works. 

Oregon State takes on Cal at 1:30 p.m. on Saturday, Oct. 26 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 for those not attending in person.