Commentary: Is Oregon turning a population corner? Maybe

Published 7:02 am Friday, January 16, 2026

If you’ve become accustomed to headlines about Oregon losing population as people flee the state, be prepared for something different.

Not massively different. Just another way of looking at the state’s trajectory.

Depending on the statistician judging it, Oregon’s population growth early in this decade was soft, at times nonexistent, maybe even falling off slightly; Conventional wisdom began to develop that, for example, the state may lose its newly-acquired 6th Congressional District after the 2030 census as a result of not keeping up with the national average.

We’re still some distance from that next census, so hard predictions are risky. But the most recent indicators are that Oregon’s growth patterns are kicking in again as they weren’t three and four years ago.

The most distinctive data point, especially for anyone in the Oregon-in-decline mindset, came days ago from United Van Lines. Its 2025 national movers study ranked Oregon highest in the nation among the 50 states for net inbound moves — 1,188 inbound (from other states) to 654 outbound. The next five ranked states were West Virginia, South Carolina, Delaware, Minnesota and Idaho, states that don’t fall on any easy ideological line. (New Jersey, New York and California brought up the end of the list.)

The company also tracked reasons for the moves, and while Oregon didn’t rank especially high for purposes of retirement, moving closer to family or better cost of living, it did rank high for “lifestyle change” and “new job or company transfer.” That suggests Oregon is looking better to people around the country. The company seems not to have tracked political or cultural reasons, though those might be hard to reliably obtain.

In the most recent study from U-Haul, the other large industry evaluator, Oregon ranked lower. But it still did much better than in previous years; U-Haul noted, “Oregon enjoys the largest year-over-year climb on the index, ranking 11th as a net-gain state in 2025 after ranking 34th as a net-loss state in 2024 — a jump of 23 positions.”

These company reports are, of course, more in the area of anecdotal information than comprehensive statistics. So let’s take a little wider view.

State population growth comes in two ways, either natural growth (births exceeding deaths) or arrivals from other places exceeding departures. Oregon’s natural growth long has been soft, so much of the picture hinges on moves to and from other states.

In the last decade, from 2010 to 2020, Oregon grew by about 11.9%, more than the overall national growth rate of 9.6%. The COVID-19 year of 2020 slowed that, as the state still grew but very slightly (about 0.7%), this time less than the nation overall.

In the next couple of years population growth hit the brakes even more, and seemed to stall almost completely in 2022.

Since then, clearer growth has returned, albeit modestly.

The U.S. Bureau of the Census and Portland State University are the main comprehensive analysts of population statistics. The Census said that Oregon lost population in 2022, but has since resumed growth. PSU has reported somewhat higher numbers.

In overview, the statistics site NCH Stats said “As of 2025, Oregon’s population is estimated at 4,227,340, reflecting a steady growth rate of 0.89%, which ranks it as the 22nd fastest-growing state in the country according to the World Population Review. This places Oregon among the states experiencing moderate population increases, aligning with its reputation as an attractive destination for residents.”

Of course, such growth as Oregon has seen hasn’t been evenly distributed.

The Portland metro area has seen growth light enough to drop it from 25 to 26 in size among the nation’s largest metro areas. Portland and to some degree Multnomah County have had mostly sluggish growth in this decade. But neighboring Washington and Clackamas Counties have had plenty of activity.

And the heaviest growth has turned up in the region around Bend, in Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson Counties.

The counties which have seen the highest proportional growth have been Crook and Sherman Counties, east of the Cascades — places where growth in data centers has been especially large.

Apart from psychological and economic considerations, the level of population in Oregon matters because the 6th congressional district seat, which the state added in 2022, could remain here or go somewhere else, to a faster-growing state.

If Oregon’s numbers held at the 2022 and 2023 levels, that seat might well vanish. But if some of the newer indicators hold up in the next few years, so might the state’s congressional representation.

Not to mention the state’s overall state of mind.

Randy Stapilus has researched and written about Northwest politics and issues since 1976 for a long list of newspapers and other publications. A former newspaper reporter and editor, and more recently an author and book publisher, he lives in Carlton.

This article was originally published by Oregon Capital Chronicle and used with permission. Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom and can be reached at info@oregoncapitalchronicle.com.