What kind of 2022 should we expect?

Published 12:00 am Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Don’t give up — 2022 could be better, really.

Yes, 2021 was not the year anyone wanted. And it’s hard to feel optimistic with the surge of omicron COVID-19 variant infections, continued Portland shootings, and questions about how schools should continue operating.

But there are reasons for hope. Omicron may be more infectious than delta but it does not seem to be as dangerous. Portland police are preparing to deploy additional resources. Local, state and national economies are proving more resilient than anyone could have expected, and officials are not yet moving to shut them down again.

In fact, Oregon’s economy is surprisingly robust, and some rural portions of the state have returned to pre-pandemic employment levels, or even better. The metro area lags in the return of jobs — thanks mostly to the weakened hospitality sector, including hotels, restaurant and bars — but economists think that will change later this year.

Like the past two years, this year will undoubtedly be full of surprises. Some of them will occur during the local, state and national elections — the first primary and general elections to be fully held since the pandemic and social justice movement completely swept the country. They will be a referendum on how well elected officials have been responding to these crises. Some political observers predict the elections could be tough on incumbents. There are predictions that Republicans will take control of the U.S. House or Senate or both.

Although the Democrat’s lock on most Oregon congressional districts seems secure, prominent Democrat outsider Nick Kristof and now independent maverick legislator Betsy Johnson could shake up the governor’s race.

The new year also may help us understand the extent of the most serious problem facing the region — homelessness. Multnomah County is expected to conduct its first official count of number of people without homes in three years after skipping the biennial Point in Time Count in 2021 because of the pandemic. The 2019 tally found 4,015 people who met U.S. Department’s of Housing and Urban Development’s definition of homelessness, including 2,037 people who were unsheltered, 1,459 people sleeping in emergency shelter and 519 people in transitional housing. If the count happens this year, the findings will be the first official measure of how well existing homeless service policies have been working since then.

Another big question is whether gun violence will continue surging this year. The number of shootings and homicides broke all records in 2021. The Portland Police Bureau’s new Focused Intervention Team, which replaces the disbanded Gun Violence Reduction Team is expected to hit the streets in January. But can it break the cycle of retaliatory shootings behind so much of the violence and deaths?

Schools are also under continuing pressure from the pandemic. Oregon’s education and health agencies are recommending a pause of extracurricular activities at public schools, due to the impact of the omicron variant of COVID-19.

Major athletic events are coming to Oregon in 2022, including first and second rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament, a NASCAR race conveniently coinciding with the Rose Festival and the World Athletics Championships, coming to Eugene July 15 to 24, is expected to be one of the largest sporting events in the world this year. It’s the first time the competition will take place in the United States, with an estimated 2,000 athletes from more than 200 nations participating.

But as Nobel prize winning Danish physicist Niels Bohr famously said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” We will all find out what kind of year 2022 will be together.